Australian PV installations forecasted to grow annually through 2030
Australian PV installation outlook (GWdc)
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Chinese module prices bottomed in 2025 and are rising as suppliers try to rebuild margins. Pricing is forecast to peak in late 2027 before stabilizing. Australia and New Zealand depend almost entirely on Chinese imports, so increases in Chinese module prices will be reflected in landed prices, though total system costs rise only modestly.
Global overcapacity impacts diminishing: 2026 installs are forecast to be down 2% YoY, placing global cell and module capacity at nearly 2.5x demand. Chinese suppliers are changing tactics, prioritizing margin over volume to push up export prices.
China PV module prices rising: FOB TOPCon module prices will increase by nearly 70% from 2025 lows through 4Q27, negatively impacting Australian buyers. Drivers of the price increases include the end of China’s VAT rebate, suppliers' efforts to push higher-margin products, the Iran War, and broad geopolitical uncertainty.
Australia PV market remains robust: installs forecast to grow 14% a year to 9.3 GW by 2030, led by the utility-scale segment. However, imports of 4.5 GW or more are needed in 2026, given limited domestic module capacity.
New Zealand PV market emerging: a potential GW-scale market in 2027 fully dependent on imported equipment, offers new opportunities for suppliers, though 2025 projects have repeatedly slipped into 2026 and risk prolonged delays.
Costs and technology: system costs bottomed out in 2025 and are forecast to rise by 4.5% in 2026, the first increase since 2017. Developers are looking for premium products such as “TOPCon 2.0,” HJT, and TBC and are willing to pay a portion of premium prices.
Procurement: H2 2026 orders face rising prices, H1 2027 peaking prices and H2 2027 flat to declining prices. China remains the only price-competitive source.
Report Contents:
Executive summary
Market trends
Price forecast
Technology benchmarking
Methodology
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